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With just over one month to go until they face off on the debate stage for the first time, a new national poll indicates President Biden and former President Trump are nearly deadlocked.
The Democratic president stands 48% among registered voters, with his Republican predecessor in the White House at 47%, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released on Wednesday. Biden’s one-point edge over Trump is well within the poll’s margin of error.
In a likely five-candidate showdown, Biden stands at 41%, Trump at 38%, Democrat turned independent Robert F. Kennedy grabs 14% support, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent progressive candidate Cornel West each at 2%.
Nineteen percent of those surveyed said it’s possible they’ll change their mind regarding their choice for president. While 15% of Biden supporters said it’s very or somewhat likely they’ll change their minds, only 8% of Trump backers said the same thing.
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President Biden and former President Trump (AP Photo/Alex Brandon | Curtis Means/DailyMail.com via AP, Pool)
But over half of those supporting Kennedy (52%) said they could potentially change their minds and vote for another candidate.
“Call them fair weather, call them unsure. A sizable block of registered voters is still juggling candidates, with Kennedy voters particularly swayable and Trump voters less inclined to bail on their candidate,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Mally highlighted.
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Most of the latest national polls in the Biden-Trump rematch indicate that the showdown remains within the margin of error.
But the race for the White House is a battle for the states and their electoral votes rather than a national popular vote. And Trump currently enjoys a slight edge in many of the most recent surveys in the key battleground states.
Biden and Trump are likely to face off on the debate stage in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 27, for the first of two showdowns.
Then-President Trump answers a question as Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden listens during the final presidential debate in Nashville, Tennessee, on Oct. 22, 2020. (Morry Gash/Pool via Reuters)
According to the Quinnipiac poll, 72% said they think it’s likely they will watch the debate.
More than a month after Trump made history as the first current or former president to stand trial in a criminal case, seven in 10 said they are following news regarding the trial either very or somewhat closely.
Trump is charged with falsifying business records in relation to payments during the 2016 election that he made to Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about his alleged affair with the adult film actress. Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, paid Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, $130,000 in return for her silence about allegations of an affair with Trump in 2006.
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Both Cohen and Daniels testified for the prosecution and were grilled by Trump’s attorneys during cross-examination in a case that’s grabbed tons of attention on the cable news networks, online and on social media.
The former president has repeatedly denied falsifying business records as well as the alleged sexual encounter with Daniels, and has repeatedly claimed, without providing evidence, that the case is a “SHAM TRIAL instigated and prosecuted directly from the inner halls of the White House and DOJ.”
Former President Trump during his trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 21, 2024, in New York City. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
Trump has also been fined a couple of times by the judge in the case – and threatened with jail – for violating a gag order aimed at protecting witnesses and jurors from the former president’s verbal attacks.
Six in 10 surveyed think the charges against Trump in the trial are either very or somewhat serious, while 36% think the charges are either not too serious or not serious at all.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted May 16-20, with 1,374 self-identified registered voters nationwide surveyed. The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in New Hampshire.
