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Former President Donald Trump leads President Biden in the race for Texas’ 40 electoral votes by double his margin of victory in the Lone Star State four years ago, according to a new poll.
And the survey released Tuesday by Marist College also indicates Republican Sen. Ted Cruz with a six-point advantage over his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred, in a key Senate showdown as the GOP aims to regain the chamber’s majority in November’s elections.
Trump carried Texas over Biden by roughly 5.5 points in 2020, which was the smallest margin of victory for a GOP presidential nominee in the deep-red state in nearly a quarter-century.
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Former president Donald Trump speaks during a visit to Eagle Pass, Texas on Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024. Trump is joined by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott . (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
But according to the Marist poll, which was conducted March 18-21, the former president leads his successor in the White House by 11 points (55%-44%) among registered voters. But Trump’s lead narrows to 7 points (53%-46%) among those who say they’ll definitely cast a ballot in the November election.
“Independents, who Biden carried by 6-percentage points in 2020, now break for Trump. Trump receives 56% of Texas independents to 41% for Biden,” the release from Marist highlights.
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The poll also suggests Biden has lost his advantage among younger voters, and that Trump has made major inroads among Black and Latino voters.
President Joe Biden delivers remarks about immigration and border security at the Brownsville Station on February 29, 2024 in Olmito, Texas. The President visited the border near Brownsville on the same day as a dueling trip made by former President Donald Trump to neighboring Eagle Pass, Texas. (Cheney Orr/Getty Images)
In a possible three-candidate race, which includes Democrat-turned independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the poll indicates Trump at 48%, Biden with 36% and Kennedy at 15%. Kennedy, the environmental activist, high-profile vaccine skeptic and scion of the nation’s most famous political dynasty, has yet to obtain ballot access in Texas.
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Cruz, the conservative firebrand who’s running for a third six-year term representing Texas in the Senate, tops Allred 51%-45% among registered voters, according to the poll. Cruz’s margin over Allred, a former professional football player in the NFL and a three-term congressman representing a suburban Dallas district, is roughly the same among likely voters.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, March 12, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
“Among independents, Cruz (50%) is up by eight percentage points against Allred (42%),” a release from Marist spotlights. “There is a wide gender gap. Cruz (59%) carries men by 21 percentage points over Allred (38%). Allred (52%) tops Cruz (44%) among women.”
While the controversial Cruz holds a 45%-43% favorable/unfavorable rating in the new survey, Allred is not well known. Fifty-three percent of those questioned said they had never heard of Allred, or didn’t know enough about him to answer the question.
A ‘Welcome to Texas’ sign near Burkeville, Texas, along the border with Louisiana (Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Immigration, at 27%, was the top issue on the minds of voters in Texas, which shares a 1,254 border with Mexico. According to the survey, inflation (at 26%) was the second most important issue, followed by preserving democracy (at 24%).
The poll had an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter based in New Hampshire.
