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Will ‘Iowa Silver’ give Trump a run for his money in the primary? Could Trump win a general?

Former President Trump’s commanding lead in polls can make him seem like the inevitable Republican nominee. Voters could also be forgiven for thinking a general election race with the same candidates will lead to the same outcome.

Still, there are a few real pathways for another Republican to take advantage of the primary calendar and give Trump a run for his money.

And while it’s possible Joe Biden will win another close general election, Democrats have good reason to be nervous about 2024, even if Trump is the nominee. 

Our advice for a shrewd bettor: Take the odds and bet on the horse named “Iowa Silver,” and don’t believe the conventional wisdom that makes Trump a “sure loser.” 

  • Robert F Kennedy Jr.’s anti-vaccine and generally anti-elite message is most likely to resonate with right-leaning libertarians and independents who would prefer not to vote for Trump. That’s why, in a recent Suffolk/USA Today poll, his 13% of support comes from voters who by 2-1 say they would otherwise support the probable GOP nominee.
  • Cornel West, a progressive philosopher and political activist, is fighting for a sliver of far-left vote. He would pull some votes from Biden, but at 4% total support in the same Suffolk poll, he appears to be less of a liability to Biden than RFK is to Trump.
  • No Labels is targeting moderates and could pick off some of the suburban voters who got Biden over the line in 2020. Much of it depends on the candidate.

Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.


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